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EuRo-ZoNe FiNaNcE MiNsTeR MeEtinG iS CrUciaL Nov 19 – 23

November 18, 2012

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GMT 15:03 – Levels to watch is GOLD @ $ 1736 $ EURO 1.2820 failure to break above could see small drop…….
Cheers until tomorrow………
GMT 14:07 – AUD 1.0406 = Close to top book your profit…Cheers
GMT 14:01 – GOLD @ $ 1732 = Should TOP around $ 1734-36 STOPS $ 1740
GMT 13:37 – GOLD @ $ 1730 depak, book your profit $ 1730-32, so that you can sell on upside rally and youm will benefit if gold dips………
GMT 13:32 – sir i brought gold should i hold or tp around 1729 -deepak
GMT 13:31 – This rally could make further gains to taet $ 1732-34 zones
GMT 13:30 – i sqare my position next i want to know sell at 1729 – manish
GMT 13:18- manish, i told you earlier to sqaure you position with small profit. Now failure to to dip below $ 1722 could see a test of $ 1727-29 zones
GMT 13:16 – what to do in gold – manish
GMT 12:21 – Dear Chandru, I would prefer to wait until there is a clear direction. For the moment I am expecting continuation of range trading between 1.2740-80, with upside bias…Thanks
GMT 11:44 – Dear Sir, Any suggestions where to sell or buy eur/usd today ?
Sir, u may take ur time and reply at an apropriate time when un feel it is right.
GMT 10:26 – manish, just book your profit at your suitable rate because NYK is a difficult customer. You never know that they can either sell of ur buy based or order. Euro has support around 1.2730-40 levels and shhoul hold. On the upside resistance is around 1.2795 and only break risk for test of 1.2820-30 zones though bias remains on the upside
GMT 10:05 – what about euro – manish
GMT 10:00 – as i sell gold at 1724 level now not going down will us opens will go down and halt till us opens -manish
GMT 7:12 – GOLD @ $ 1724.20 = Pick the top and take profit and sell Gold around $ 1724.20-1726 STOPS $ 1730

Last week, US Dollar’s tone remained strong against major currencies, as nervousness due to delay in reaching an understanding on US fiscal program is causing unrest amongst the investors that are pulling their money from equity. In last one-month US stocks is down by 6 to 7 pct. Though I have mentioned quite a few times in my earlier notes that I am of view that fiscal cliff issues will be resolved with adjustments/understanding as both the parities must be aware of the consequences and therefore, few months of delay will not have much impact on US economy. If need arises, FED can provide the required liquidity.
This Tuesday’s meeting of Euro-zone finance ministers after Greece managing to secure 2-year extension for meeting its deficit target helped the country to rollover its short term Euro 5 billion funding. This may be providing glimmer of hope in some quarters that Greece could get a nod for the bigger pie, as Greece is looking for Euro 31.5 billion tranche. But Lagarde statement from Manila urging Greece to seriously consider reducing its debt pile and refrain from wishful thinking suggest that Greece still has a tough task ahead to obtain funds.
From investors prespective, we could be heading for a very tricky and difficult situation, as we still have over 40 days before the expiry of US fiscal program. Delay in reaching an understanding on US fiscal cliff will surely further dent Dow Jones, oil prices should ease a bit, as USD 600 billion tax amount means roughly 3 pct of of GDP that points towards recession. Squeeze in liquidity is not good news for Gold, which is a dead asset as it offer zero return and hence, USD could be the ultimate beneficiary in the absence of YEN and Swiss Franc that in past has always played a role of safe haven.
US tax issue is unlikely to be settled this week and hence, all eyes will shift towards Tuesday’s European finance ministers meeting. Here are are two possible scenarios, a nod on Greece demand for Euro 31.5 billion package will surely push US Dollar down, but currencies, gold and oil will get boost. But I have a feeling that earlier IMF chief statement could be a warning short that deal may not be reached this week and further delay could be bad news for Euro and other major currencies, which could put pressure on oil and gold too.
However, until the European announcement is made US Dollar could come under pressure, which means bias should tilt towards currencies, gold and oil. Bottom hunting for next two days may not be bad idea, but quick profit taking is also recommended due to high risk and possible volatile market condition this week.

GOLD @ $ 1713.70 = So far gold succeeded in holding $ 1700 well. $ 1692-95 is the key support level. The only risk is that if $ 1725 break gold could test $1738-40 levels. However, gold is sell on rise as break of support levels will see a fall. In coming days I am expecting gold to fall and test $ 1660=70 zones.

EURO @ 1.2740 = I am expecting a volatile weak, as news pertaining to Euro-zone region could have an impact on Fx market. Initially I do not see weak Euro, as European currency could make gains and is likely to test 1.2850. The move beyond would encourage for a test of 1.2920-40 zones. This week on the downside, key level to watch is 1.2640, as break of this level could see push a towards 1.2510 zones. Range for the week 1.2480 – 1.3050

GBP @ 1.5877 = Though Cable could make mild gains but should hold below 1.60 levels and only brake above 1.6080 would be threatening. I am expecting a a test 1.5780-90 zones and break of his level could bring more bearish spell. Range for the week 1.5720 – 1.6050
JPY @ 81.28 = I am not too convinced that Yen will fall below 81.90 if 81.60 surrenders, as see risk for a move towards 80.70, which could extend towards 80.20. Range for the week 79.50 – 82.30

AUD @ 1.0337 = Aussie should be sold on rise as break of 1.0450 is required for Bullish move. Any up move should exhaust around 1.0425 zones. However, break below 1.0270 should see a fall extending towards 1.0220

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