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gReEcE iS a DoNe dEaL

November 14, 2012

GMT 3:10 – Euro @ 1.2720 – In my yesterday’s note I said Greek T/bills auction is not a big issues, as European are aware of the consequences of poor auction result and I proved to be correct because Greece defaulting at this stage makes no sense since European leaders are mentally not prepared for the break-up.
This is why European leaders and their financial managers are desperate and are willing to compromise on anything “Good, Bad or Ugly” that can bring respite to the Euro zone region. Basics of banking teaches us that banks do not lend money to a customer that are unable to pay back the money/loan.
After 2009 US housing market collapse this practice has been breached globally, financial accounting rules have been modified and are tailor made according to the needs, window dressing became a popular choice and auditors are comfortable with the changes and does not put objection note on the weak balance sheet. Best example is that developed economies are printing money in many trillions and yet there is no inflation in the developed economies.
Bottom line is that all signs suggest that Greece will be blessed with a grace period, as Torika is looking for an appropriate time to strengthen it’s case and go clean. News about clash between Luxembourg PM Junker and IMF chief Lagarde to cut debt to 2022 instead 2020 is nothing but eye wash. No one can be sure about financial happening in next 2-months and they are clashing to reduce time period to 8 years instead of 10 years is surely a joke and stupid reasoning without a definitive plan because in this period many governments will be changed. They are simply paving way so that once Greece is done, then comes Spain’s turn.
Market is currently hanging around two major issues unending miseries of Euro-zone region and Fiscal Cliff in USA. Fiscal Cliff as I mentioned in my Monday’s post should not witness expire date and my view remains unchanged. I am not expecting that in present conditions economic data can bring much change in the market though market could react to the various news flashes. Though FED minutes will be keenly watched, which may not have too much to add/offer on the US economy as election is over only a week ago.
Today I am looking for 1.2670 area to hold and break of 1.2735-40 zones could see a minor push towards 1.2655-60 area or else 1.2630-40 threatens for ore losses. However, I will not hesitate to pick the top to sell Euro.

GMT 3: 22 – GOLD @ $ 1728.30 = Buy around $ 1724-25, as $ 1721 should hold take profit around $ 1735-36

GMT 3:20 – AUD 1.0449 = Do see more gains towards 1.0485-90, as buying interest should emerge around 1.0410. Strong support around 1.0355-60

GMT 3:17 – JPY 79.49 = Should hold around 79.30 for a test of 79.70-75 region only beak of 7910-15 could threatening

GMT 3:15 – GBP @ 1.5884 – I am not comforable selling Cable today and would buy around 1.5860 zones with STOPS 1.5820. Break of 1.5915 could see a push towards 1.5935

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